About ten years ago I wrote that the electric highway might be nearer than I initially thought. I am still a big fan of electrification. In 2007, I bought a Camry Hybrid, which made me a relatively early adopter: only about 350 thousand hybrids were sold in the US that year, compared to about 16 million new cars and light trucks overall. In other words, hybrids represented only about 2% of the market.

Things have changed quite a bit. In the second quarter of 2026, regular hybrids accounted for 16% of new US light-duty vehicle sales. If we add plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars, the share was 24%. However, fully electric cars alone accounted for only 6% of new sales. And because new cars make up only a small fraction of cars already on the road, fully electric cars were only about 2% of the registered US light-duty vehicle fleet in 2024.

There are currently about 289 million light vehicles on US roads, while annual new registrations are roughly 16 million. Even in the completely unrealistic scenario where 100% of new vehicles became electric tomorrow, dividing one number by the other gives us about 18 years just to replace the current fleet once. This is clearly a lower bound rather than a realistic transition time: only a small fraction of new cars are fully electric today, and the average US light vehicle is now 12.8 years old. I would therefore not be surprised to see gasoline-only and hybrid cars on American roads in substantial numbers for another 30-40 years, perhaps even longer. Thus, despite enormous progress, we still have a long way to go before full electrification.

This brings me to a much more practical question. Our old Camry has recently started to give out. We replaced quite a few things, and, somewhat amusingly, the hybrid battery was not even the most expensive repair. We decided to keep the Camry as a modestly used second car, which we actually need from time to time. But we also needed a replacement for our primary car. So the question was: Should we finally buy a fully electric one?

I was actually quite tempted, but the ultimate family decision was to buy a plug-in hybrid instead. This seems to be a rather nice compromise. For our local driving, this means that the car can function nearly all the time as an electric vehicle. On a long trip, however, we do not need to plan the trip around fast chargers or worry much about finding a working charger in the right place.

This latter issue was probably decisive for me. The charging infrastructure has improved enormously, but I do not think it is ready enough that I want to depend on it during every long trip. This is not merely range anxiety. In the In the 2025 J.D. Power public charging study, 14% of EV owners reported at least one visit to a public charger where they were unable to charge. This was actually a substantial improvement compared to the previous year, but 14% is still a surprisingly large number when you are traveling with your family and need the charger to work. The most common reason for a failed charging visit was that the charger was out of service or did not work properly.

There is also an interesting technological complication. The battery technology we have now may not be the battery technology we have several years from now. Toyota is targeting 2027-2028 for commercialization of its all-solid-state batteries, and Nissan is targeting fiscal 2028. If these plans actually work at mass-production scale, solid-state batteries may substantially change the calculus: manufacturers are promising higher energy density, longer range and much faster charging. For example, Toyota has discussed a target of 10 minutes or less for charging from 10% to 80% together with improved driving range. Of course, these are manufacturer targets rather than capabilities of cars one can buy today. Better batteries, however, do not automatically build charging stations, increase their availability, or make broken chargers work.

Thus, somewhat paradoxically, I remain quite optimistic about electric cars while deciding not to buy one. I suspect that my next new car will finally be fully electric. But cars last a long time in our family. If the new plug-in hybrid lasts anything like the old Camry, we may be driving it for another 15-20 years. By then, I expect the electric highway to be considerably closer than it is today.